Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

The RBA could hike rates half an hour before the Melbourne Cup jumps. Meanwhile, a key rare earth price is up 23% this year while the stocks keep drifting. Why?

Commodities: Why You Need an International Focus

Jurisdictional risk has many faces. The latest moves by the Australian Federal Government prove that no region is risk-free in the commodities market.

Welcome to peak chaos

Bonds and copper are sending contradictory signals. When the noise gets this loud, fear does the pricing. Here’s why I’m testing the water in small-cap resources.

Did the Firmus IPO kill ASX small caps?

Firmus’ failed $44 billion IPO has rippled through ASX juniors. Meanwhile, commodity stocks and commodity prices are further apart than I’ve ever seen. Here’s why I’m thinking about going shopping.

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Commodities: Why You Need an International Focus

Jurisdictional risk has many faces. The latest moves by the Australian Federal Government prove that no region is risk-free in the commodities market.

Higher For Longer Oil? Futures Say No!

There are plenty of reasons why oil prices could remain higher for longer. But the futures market says they are all wrong. Today, I show you what the headline writers are missing. And what the weight of professional money says comes next for oil.

Stocks Crumble. Commodity Prices Hold Firm.

If you have a flair for bargain-hunting in the stock market, well, resources have plenty of opportunity right now. And that’s despite strong underlying commodity prices.

Exploit the Weakness: Commodities Up, Stocks Down

As an investor, bargain-hunting and looking for out-of-favour opportunities in the resource market has proven a useful strategy time and again. And that hour has just arrived again.

The M.A.D. Scramble (Part Two): Has China Already Won?

According to a famous long-dead economist, China is winning the battle for global supremacy right now. His insight on energy foreshadowed the transition from the British Empire to the Age of America. Which is why energy – and related commodities – are the key battleground in the M.A.D Scramble for global dominance. Uranium looks to be increasingly important…

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Technology

AI Debt’s Daisy Chain

The AI boom was financed as if the winner takes all. Charlie Ormond explains why that bet is looking shakier by the week.

Navigating the Tricks of Uranium Investing

Spot uranium has consolidated above US$80/lb, and term contracts are signing higher still. So why isn’t new supply showing up?

You’ve been warned

Greg Canavan

Let me preface this essay by saying the ASX needs more companies like this. We’ve got enough banks and resources.

The Reverse Centaur

The big AI labs have moved the race from chatbots to personal AI agents. But as tech critics warn, the same technology can make each of us the legs for a different kind of beast.

Mind the Gap — Part 2.

Part 2 of Charlie’s look at AI and work. Electricity’s biggest gains came when factories changed around it. AI presents a similar challenge today. And an opportunity for investors.

Small Caps

The rare earths price disconnect

The RBA could hike rates half an hour before the Melbourne Cup jumps. Meanwhile, a key rare earth price is up 23% this year while the stocks keep drifting. Why?

Welcome to peak chaos

Bonds and copper are sending contradictory signals. When the noise gets this loud, fear does the pricing. Here’s why I’m testing the water in small-cap resources.

Did the Firmus IPO kill ASX small caps?

Wall Street Timing It’s Crypto Play?

The textbooks say Bitcoin should fall when bond yields rise. Between July and October, it climbed by almost half instead. Here’s why Bitcoin keeps two clocks.

Crypto’s US Debt Bizarro World

America needs buyers for about US$2 trillion of new debt a year. Its old lenders are drifting away. The newcomer filling the gap is the last one you’d expect.

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Market Analysis

When the Blood on the Street is Yours

Murray Dawes

In today’s Closing Bell, Murray and Charlie discuss the psychology of investing during a market sell-off, why position sizing matters more than predictions, and whether the long-term outlook for critical minerals remains intact.

What just happened?

Greg Canavan

On the surface, all was calm. The ASX200 finished flat on the day. The ASX100 closed up 0.14%. And the broader ASX300 was down just 0.07%.

Part II – Navigating the Tricks of Uranium Investing

Uranium bears are back out of their holes. Is this the time to go hunting?

Euro Exodus Accelerates

Murray Dawes

Murray and Charlie discuss whether the capitulation in resources is creating opportunities worth watching, and why keeping your nerve through the carnage could prove crucial.

Somewhere Over the Trading Range

A sideways market rewards investors who are willing to change their mind. What history’s greatest bear can teach you about a feverish market going nowhere.

Macro

Dead, Dying, Gone

Big money is wading back into bonds, betting today’s yields are an aberration. But 60/40 depends on a world COVID left behind.

Beijing Puts Away the Bazooka

Expectations of a stimulus bazooka from China have again been pushed back. But their latest plan does point to a list of metals that should be in your portfolio.

Let Her Rip

Two years ago, Trump’s economic whisperer co-wrote a paper accusing party politics of running stimulus into an election. This week, Treasury reached for the exact tool he described. The same paper warns what’s next.

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump