Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

The company behind Claude wants a trillion-dollar listing, and warns its AI could try to resist shutdown. Meanwhile, Australia’s new tax rules reward nimble investors. Here’s how to stay ahead.

Trump’s Russia Play | China’s Fear

Jim Rickards

There has been a flurry of activity between U.S. and Russian negotiators recently involving global energy markets and the role of Russia in the war in Ukraine.

Fireworks season for ASX small caps

Small resource stocks have been thrown overboard while the banks are back in vogure. Meanwhile, hedge funds have almost $70 billion riding against the ASX. The next two months could get explosive.

Has the Commodity Cycle Already Peaked?

China’s stock market just sank into a bear market — its longest weekly losing streak on record — and junior miners are feeling the pain. But if you believe the commodity story is still intact, panic selling like this is exactly when the best opportunities appear. In this piece, I walk through my three-step process for finding value in a market everyone else has given up on.

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Commodities

Trump’s Russia Play | China’s Fear

Jim Rickards

There has been a flurry of activity between U.S. and Russian negotiators recently involving global energy markets and the role of Russia in the war in Ukraine.

Has the Commodity Cycle Already Peaked?

As Risks Emerge, Be Selective, Know What to Buy

The S&P 500 once fell nearly 48% in under two years. Gold, copper and oil still made money. Here is why that matters now.

The West confronts the reality of unconditional tolerance

Brian Chu

As the riots in France spread to other countries in Europe, we’re watching the West face the reality of its longstanding policy of tolerance. Today, we must reflect on how we got here, and whether we want this to continue…

Commodities: Why You Need an International Focus

Jurisdictional risk has many faces. The latest moves by the Australian Federal Government prove that no region is risk-free in the commodities market.

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

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Technology

Rogue AI’s Day at the Zoo

Researchers made contact with a rogue fleet of Chinese AI that was on a quest to find a zoo gate. Charlie looks at what this strange episode tells us about AI let loose on the open web, and why you need AI on your side.

The 100-year bond and the two-year chip

AI is a bubble for the simple reason that every transformational technology creates one. That also means the tools are too good to ignore. Here’s how he holds both ideas at once.

AI Debt’s Daisy Chain

The AI boom was financed as if the winner takes all. Charlie Ormond explains why that bet is looking shakier by the week.

Navigating the Tricks of Uranium Investing

Spot uranium has consolidated above US$80/lb, and term contracts are signing higher still. So why isn’t new supply showing up?

You’ve been warned

Greg Canavan

Let me preface this essay by saying the ASX needs more companies like this. We’ve got enough banks and resources.

Small Caps

Anthropic’s Bold Sci-Fi Play

The company behind Claude wants a trillion-dollar listing, and warns its AI could try to resist shutdown. Meanwhile, Australia’s new tax rules reward nimble investors. Here’s how to stay ahead.

Fireworks season for ASX small caps

Small resource stocks have been thrown overboard while the banks are back in vogure. Meanwhile, hedge funds have almost $70 billion riding against the ASX. The next two months could get explosive.

The rare earths price disconnect

The RBA could hike rates half an hour before the Melbourne Cup jumps. Meanwhile, a key rare earth price is up 23% this year while the stocks keep drifting. Why?

Welcome to peak chaos

Bonds and copper are sending contradictory signals. When the noise gets this loud, fear does the pricing. Here’s why I’m testing the water in small-cap resources.

Did the Firmus IPO kill ASX small caps?

Firmus’ failed $44 billion IPO has rippled through ASX juniors. Meanwhile, commodity stocks and commodity prices are further apart than I’ve ever seen. Here’s why I’m thinking about going shopping.

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Market Analysis

Market Capitulation: Is Something Breaking?

Murray Dawes

Panic selling is sweeping through ASX small and mid-cap stocks as the AI trade unwinds and global financial stress intensifies.

When the Blood on the Street is Yours

Murray Dawes

In today’s Closing Bell, Murray and Charlie discuss the psychology of investing during a market sell-off, why position sizing matters more than predictions, and whether the long-term outlook for critical minerals remains intact.

What just happened?

Greg Canavan

On the surface, all was calm. The ASX200 finished flat on the day. The ASX100 closed up 0.14%. And the broader ASX300 was down just 0.07%.

Part II – Navigating the Tricks of Uranium Investing

Uranium bears are back out of their holes. Is this the time to go hunting?

Euro Exodus Accelerates

Murray Dawes

Murray and Charlie discuss whether the capitulation in resources is creating opportunities worth watching, and why keeping your nerve through the carnage could prove crucial.

Macro

Dead, Dying, Gone

Big money is wading back into bonds, betting today’s yields are an aberration. But 60/40 depends on a world COVID left behind.

Beijing Puts Away the Bazooka

Expectations of a stimulus bazooka from China have again been pushed back. But their latest plan does point to a list of metals that should be in your portfolio.

Let Her Rip

Two years ago, Trump’s economic whisperer co-wrote a paper accusing party politics of running stimulus into an election. This week, Treasury reached for the exact tool he described. The same paper warns what’s next.

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump