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Going Winchester

The new era of drone warfare is playing havoc with the West’s ability to defend itself. Now we’re running out of ammo.

The global order at the crossroads

The US-Iran conflict is now almost six months old. What began with military strikes has developed into a combination of diplomacy and economic warfare. The world is watching the global order redefine itself as countries realign and reposition themselves.

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Commodities

The global order at the crossroads

The US-Iran conflict is now almost six months old. What began with military strikes has developed into a combination of diplomacy and economic warfare. The world is watching the global order redefine itself as countries realign and reposition themselves.

AI’s fatal flaw

Tech bros got rich from scalable business models. But AI isn’t scalable. Its costs and revenues are closely linked. And we don’t yet know which is greater.

The Bauxite Opportunity Hidden in a $2.5 Billion Bailout

A $2.5 billion bailout for Rio Tinto’s Tomago aluminium smelter has dominated the headlines — but the real story may be what it reveals about future demand for aluminium’s raw material. The same forces driving copper (renewables, EVs, data centres and grid buildouts) are also lifting aluminium use, and that points straight to bauxite.

Win the Copper. Win the War

History doesn’t repeat exactly, but resource bidding wars have played out three times in the last 125 years, and the pattern each time was strikingly similar.

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Technology

Going Winchester

The new era of drone warfare is playing havoc with the West’s ability to defend itself. Now we’re running out of ammo.

Software’s Second Coming

In February, the market decided AI had made software obsolete and sold the sector down the river. Six months later, short sellers are cowering and reporting season is separating the genuinely disrupted from the merely unloved.

No War, No Peace

Trump has swapped bombs for a blockade. But the squeeze is again putting pressure on diesel, which bleeds through to Aussie miners’ bottom lines.

The Line Break

Key trendlines are breaking in some unloved sectors on the ASX. While the signals are all early, it’s worth updating your watchlists.

Small Caps

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Market Analysis

The Wrong Bubble Pt.2

In part one, I argued the AI build-out looks more like 2008 than 2000. Here is why the hyperscalers keep spending anyway — and the moment that could unwind it.

The Wrong Bubble Pt.1

I have put the AI boom in the same breath as the dot-com bubble before. Looking at how this build-out is actually financed, that comparison now looks too generous.

Macro

Worst. Budget. Ever

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

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