Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

The textbooks say Bitcoin should fall when bond yields rise. Between July and October, it climbed by almost half instead. Here’s why Bitcoin keeps two clocks.

Exploit the Weakness: Commodities Up, Stocks Down

As an investor, bargain-hunting and looking for out-of-favour opportunities in the resource market has proven a useful strategy time and again. And that hour has just arrived again.

Crypto’s US Debt Bizarro World

America needs buyers for about US$2 trillion of new debt a year. Its old lenders are drifting away. The newcomer filling the gap is the last one you’d expect.

Chopper’s changed his tune

Small caps are trading at their biggest discount to the ASX’s largest companies since 2014. With bond giants turning buyers, I’m calling a surprise small-cap renaissance into Christmas.

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Exploit the Weakness: Commodities Up, Stocks Down

As an investor, bargain-hunting and looking for out-of-favour opportunities in the resource market has proven a useful strategy time and again. And that hour has just arrived again.

The M.A.D. Scramble (Part Two): Has China Already Won?

According to a famous long-dead economist, China is winning the battle for global supremacy right now. His insight on energy foreshadowed the transition from the British Empire to the Age of America. Which is why energy – and related commodities – are the key battleground in the M.A.D Scramble for global dominance. Uranium looks to be increasingly important…

The Great American Mineral Grab

America’s scramble for mineral independence is creating lucrative opportunities in junior mining stocks across Nevada, Arizona, Alaska, and Idaho’s exploration hotspots.

The M.A.D. Scramble

Forget bond yields, ignore oil prices, and don’t overthink the Middle East conflict. There’s only one battle that matters. The battle between challenger and incumbent. Two superpowers, battling it out for global supremacy. Both need certain key commodities we own. And whoever wins, we’re assuredly heading towards a M.A.D. world.

Has AI Reset the Cycle?

The latest data from China came in. And the news was good. But in a way, it doesn’t really matter. Because there’s something far more powerful driving Australia’s miners right now. And some argue it just got an ‘AI Reset.’

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Technology

Navigating the Tricks of Uranium Investing

Spot uranium has consolidated above US$80/lb, and term contracts are signing higher still. So why isn’t new supply showing up?

You’ve been warned

Greg Canavan

Let me preface this essay by saying the ASX needs more companies like this. We’ve got enough banks and resources.

The Reverse Centaur

The big AI labs have moved the race from chatbots to personal AI agents. But as tech critics warn, the same technology can make each of us the legs for a different kind of beast.

Mind the Gap — Part 2.

Part 2 of Charlie’s look at AI and work. Electricity’s biggest gains came when factories changed around it. AI presents a similar challenge today. And an opportunity for investors.

Mind the Gap — Part 1.

Orwell worried about what machines would take from us. Investors are betting on what they will deliver. Between those two questions sits a gap that prior tech revolutions struggled to cross.

Small Caps

Wall Street Timing It’s Crypto Play?

The textbooks say Bitcoin should fall when bond yields rise. Between July and October, it climbed by almost half instead. Here’s why Bitcoin keeps two clocks.

Crypto’s US Debt Bizarro World

America needs buyers for about US$2 trillion of new debt a year. Its old lenders are drifting away. The newcomer filling the gap is the last one you’d expect.

Chopper’s changed his tune

Small caps are trading at their biggest discount to the ASX’s largest companies since 2014. With bond giants turning buyers, I’m calling a surprise small-cap renaissance into Christmas.

Watch it Happen: US Market Rally to NYE

Iran is lashing out in the Strait of Hormuz as oil flows return to near prewar levels. I think that could set up a rally few people expect.

Firmus IPO: Who’s the exit liquidity?

Firmus is about to become the ASX’s second-largest float ever. Before you pile in, it’s worth asking a simple question. Who exactly is selling to you, and why now?

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Market Analysis

Part II – Navigating the Tricks of Uranium Investing

Uranium bears are back out of their holes. Is this the time to go hunting?

Euro Exodus Accelerates

Murray Dawes

Murray and Charlie discuss whether the capitulation in resources is creating opportunities worth watching, and why keeping your nerve through the carnage could prove crucial.

Somewhere Over the Trading Range

A sideways market rewards investors who are willing to change their mind. What history’s greatest bear can teach you about a feverish market going nowhere.

Up 2,500%… Is This the Correction to Buy?

Murray Dawes

Bond yields continue to rise, and high-yield corporate bonds are coming under pressure. Meanwhile, US equities remain worryingly narrow, while Australian stocks have just suffered a sharp sell-off.

Global Bond Rout Puts the ASX on the Edge

Murray Dawes

Charlie and Murray examine the synchronised rise in global yields, the growing competition for capital between governments and the AI investment boom, and the key levels that could determine whether the ASX stabilises or suffers another sharp leg lower.

Macro

Beijing Puts Away the Bazooka

Expectations of a stimulus bazooka from China have again been pushed back. But their latest plan does point to a list of metals that should be in your portfolio.

Let Her Rip

Two years ago, Trump’s economic whisperer co-wrote a paper accusing party politics of running stimulus into an election. This week, Treasury reached for the exact tool he described. The same paper warns what’s next.

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?