Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

In this week’s Closing Bell, Murray and Charlie break down the budget fallout, the opportunities that may emerge during the transition period, and why this remains a brutal but fascinating stock picker’s market.

Geo Tips to Weatherproof Your Portfolio – Part I

Find out how geologist James Cooper combines investment with an understanding of the rocks.

The Last Pre-Internet Generation, and What’s Next…

The AI buildout looks unprecedented. It isn’t. The last time we built like this, fortunes were made and lost. The data centre buildout is the next chapter.

A budget that truly bridged Australia’s inequality

Brian Chu

The 2026 Federal Budget might have sealed the Labor Party’s defeat in the next election. Removing negative gearing and the discount on capital gains might be delivering the biggest sucker punch to the people the Treasurer claimed to help.

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Commodities

Geo Tips to Weatherproof Your Portfolio – Part I

Find out how geologist James Cooper combines investment with an understanding of the rocks.

A budget that truly bridged Australia’s inequality

Brian Chu

Jurisdictional Risk Just Went Local

Australia’s budget is walking a fine line; pushing investors into overseas markets.

At what point does populist politics become a problem for investors?

Nick Hubble

Remember that famous billboard ad by Manhattan Mini Storage? ‘The French aristocracy didn’t see it coming either.’ Well, a socialist is the mayor of New York today…

The Australian Economy’s Getting a Pay Rise, but it’s Still Depressed

The doom is real. But so are the commodity prices. And right now, the gap between them is where fortunes are made.

Investment ideas from the Edge of the Bell Curve to your inbox

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Technology

The Last Pre-Internet Generation, and What’s Next…

The AI buildout looks unprecedented. It isn’t. The last time we built like this, fortunes were made and lost. The data centre buildout is the next chapter.

More Power to You

The latest White House declarations underscore the next major theme heading into 2030. And Australia has what they need.

The Thin Red Line

A US$2 billion deal for an AI agent was unwound by Beijing this week. The implications for global AI, capital flows and your portfolio are bigger than the price tag.

The Company Who Cried Wolf

AI company Anthropic has been on the rooftops shouting about the threats of its upcoming model. Insiders have widely panned the move as a marketing ploy. So where are the risks?

AI’s Next Bottleneck is Plumbing

Everyone’s watching chips and power. Almost no one is watching the optical shifts that insiders are scrambling to solve. That’s about to change.

Small Caps

Iran is bad, but AI stock rebrands might be worse

The Aussie budget is grim, but global markets have a far bigger fish to fry. There have been 33 ‘AI company’ rebrands, US$8.7 billion in ETF inflows, and the market is smelling a whiff of 1999.

Budget Watch: We’re all George Costanza now

Australia’s budget is coming on Tuesday, 12 May, and it will likely make investors feel like George Costanza. Maybe investors will embrace pure nihilism and swing for the fences even more?

Mining deals? You ain’t seen nothing yet!

Lion’s mining clock is lighting up again as global M&A surges, but this doesn’t look like another dumb top‑of‑cycle blow‑off. It looks like the real boom phase beginning.

Where to invest after RBA rate decision…not Australia

Rate hikes punish productive Aussies and big local projects, but soaring commodity prices point to ASX-listed plays offshore in nickel, copper, lithium and uranium instead.

Tax “reform”: They always want more

The Aussie government is proposing tax reform that is based on policy from nearly three years ago. But if the market trades down for a few months, that could throw up some great opportunities.

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Market Analysis

The Budget from Hell

Markets Brace for Tuesday Shock

Murray and Charlie look at whether fears surrounding next week’s budget and potential capital gains tax changes are beginning to trigger selling pressure across the market.

Big Tech Just Broke the Tape

US stocks remain bulletproof while the ASX lags. Murray and Charlie look at a software bounce-back trade and run the ruler over a bunch of viewer-suggested stocks.

Market Nerves Return This Week

Aussie stocks had a rough week, falling around 2% while US markets held firm. With uncertainty still hanging over Iran, investors are watching fuel, fertiliser and commodity supply risks closely.

The Pros Got Crushed… What That Means for You

Markets have just ripped higher, with the S&P 500 surging 15% in less than two weeks. But beneath the surface, things aren’t nearly as strong as they look.

Macro

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession

The ASX is diverging from the optimism we’re seeing in US markets. What’s the driving force, and what can we do about it?

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else