Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

The ASX 200 took a step backwards this week as results season put the brakes on its recent rally. Weakness in the banks has raised the risk, potentially opening the door to a quick 4% correction.

Win the Copper. Win the War

History doesn’t repeat exactly, but resource bidding wars have played out three times in the last 125 years, and the pattern each time was strikingly similar.

No War, No Peace

Trump has swapped bombs for a blockade. But the squeeze is again putting pressure on diesel, which bleeds through to Aussie miners’ bottom lines.

The Dr Fauci hearing exposes something bigger than him

Brian Chu

When Dr Fauci pleaded the fifth in the Senate hearing, the world began to see the man with two faces. Yet he’s just one actor in what is one of modern history’s most egregious scandals. There were many supporting cast members in this tragedy.

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Commodities

Win the Copper. Win the War

History doesn’t repeat exactly, but resource bidding wars have played out three times in the last 125 years, and the pattern each time was strikingly similar.

The Dr Fauci hearing exposes something bigger than him

Brian Chu

Uranium: An Undercurrent of Supply Problems

According to the World Nuclear Association, at least 70 nuclear power reactors are currently under construction worldwide; can uranium production keep up?

Why the exchange rate matters the most

Nick Hubble

Currencies control the fate of your portfolio. Yet few investors bother to think about them. Here’s a reminder why they matter, so you don’t learn the hard way.

The Dealmakers have Arrived: The Americans are coming to Town

The Americans are coming to town and they’ve found a gap in the market. Read on to find out why this could reshape the junior mining sector.

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Technology

No War, No Peace

Trump has swapped bombs for a blockade. But the squeeze is again putting pressure on diesel, which bleeds through to Aussie miners’ bottom lines.

The Line Break

Key trendlines are breaking in some unloved sectors on the ASX. While the signals are all early, it’s worth updating your watchlists.

The Silicon Curtain

AI could be one of the factors that ultimately split the world into two rival blocs. Where does that leave us?

AI for Dummies

After many requests, here’s Charlie’s stab at how these machines think, connect ideas and remember. Explained in plain English.

Selling the Signal

Trading firms can now pay the President’s company for millisecond access to the President’s posts. Most companies have to make a product. This one just makes news.

Small Caps

Who Pays For The AI Shovels?

Nvidia financing points to a complicated circular web which could unwind the whole trade. That might mean there is no more easy money to make, now that the suits are worried.

Market Rollercoaster Madness

Australian small caps have finally snapped their downtrend after a brutal budget and a war scare. August is seasonally strong. So why am I still nervous?

Gold moving, juniors next in line…

Gold just had its best week since January and the big miners ran 21% in five days. The ASX small cap end of that trade is usually last to move.

The Metal That Melts In Your Hand: Secrets of the Small Cap Rabbit Hole (Pt. 3)

China makes 98% of it, America makes none, and SpaceX cannot fly without it. I backed a micro-cap on this metal a year before the crowd arrived.

China’s Shadowy Gold Move: Secrets of the Small Cap Rabbit Hole (Pt. 2)

Michael Howell thinks Beijing now controls the taps that drive the gold price. Here’s how that plays into how I go hunting for the secret sauce that drives big wins in small-caps and micro-caps.

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Market Analysis

ASX Wobbles as Tech and Uranium Come Alive

The ASX 200 took a step backwards this week as results season put the brakes on its recent rally. Weakness in the banks has raised the risk, potentially opening the door to a quick 4% correction.

Gold Reignites: Here’s Our Favourites

After an eight-month correction, a growing number of gold stocks are flashing potential buy signals at the same time. Murray looks at why that could point to a tradeable bounce in gold.

The Wrong Bubble Pt.2

In part one, I argued the AI build-out looks more like 2008 than 2000. Here is why the hyperscalers keep spending anyway — and the moment that could unwind it.

I wasn’t expecting THIS chart…

US bond yields are creeping back into dangerous territory, AI pessimism may have reached a short-term extreme, and the metals story continues to impress.

The Wrong Bubble Pt.1

I have put the AI boom in the same breath as the dot-com bubble before. Looking at how this build-out is actually financed, that comparison now looks too generous.

Macro

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?

China’s oil hoarding may be a signal for a longer game than the West expects.

Australia’s Vibecession

The ASX is diverging from the optimism we’re seeing in US markets. What’s the driving force, and what can we do about it?

If You’re Confused, So Is Everyone Else