Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

Small caps are trading at their biggest discount to the ASX’s largest companies since 2014. With bond giants turning buyers, I’m calling a surprise small-cap renaissance into Christmas.

The M.A.D. Scramble (Part Two): Has China Already Won?

According to a famous long-dead economist, China is winning the battle for global supremacy right now. His insight on energy foreshadowed the transition from the British Empire to the Age of America. Which is why energy – and related commodities – are the key battleground in the M.A.D Scramble for global dominance. Uranium looks to be increasingly important…

Part II – Navigating the Tricks of Uranium Investing

Uranium bears are back out of their holes. Is this the time to go hunting?

Euro Exodus Accelerates

Murray and Charlie discuss whether the capitulation in resources is creating opportunities worth watching, and why keeping your nerve through the carnage could prove crucial.

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Commodities

The M.A.D. Scramble (Part Two): Has China Already Won?

The Great American Mineral Grab

America’s scramble for mineral independence is creating lucrative opportunities in junior mining stocks across Nevada, Arizona, Alaska, and Idaho’s exploration hotspots.

The M.A.D. Scramble

Forget bond yields, ignore oil prices, and don’t overthink the Middle East conflict. There’s only one battle that matters. The battle between challenger and incumbent. Two superpowers, battling it out for global supremacy. Both need certain key commodities we own. And whoever wins, we’re assuredly heading towards a M.A.D. world.

Has AI Reset the Cycle?

The latest data from China came in. And the news was good. But in a way, it doesn’t really matter. Because there’s something far more powerful driving Australia’s miners right now. And some argue it just got an ‘AI Reset.’

The Ghost of the GFC: Yields Keep Rising

Bond yields are rising in the US, and that’s sending tremors through the global economy, including here in Australia. Today, we try to make sense of it.

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Technology

Navigating the Tricks of Uranium Investing

Spot uranium has consolidated above US$80/lb, and term contracts are signing higher still. So why isn’t new supply showing up?

You’ve been warned

Greg Canavan

Let me preface this essay by saying the ASX needs more companies like this. We’ve got enough banks and resources.

The Reverse Centaur

The big AI labs have moved the race from chatbots to personal AI agents. But as tech critics warn, the same technology can make each of us the legs for a different kind of beast.

Mind the Gap — Part 2.

Part 2 of Charlie’s look at AI and work. Electricity’s biggest gains came when factories changed around it. AI presents a similar challenge today. And an opportunity for investors.

Mind the Gap — Part 1.

Orwell worried about what machines would take from us. Investors are betting on what they will deliver. Between those two questions sits a gap that prior tech revolutions struggled to cross.

Small Caps

Chopper’s changed his tune

Small caps are trading at their biggest discount to the ASX’s largest companies since 2014. With bond giants turning buyers, I’m calling a surprise small-cap renaissance into Christmas.

Watch it Happen: US Market Rally to NYE

Iran is lashing out in the Strait of Hormuz as oil flows return to near prewar levels. I think that could set up a rally few people expect.

Firmus IPO: Who’s the exit liquidity?

Firmus is about to become the ASX’s second-largest float ever. Before you pile in, it’s worth asking a simple question. Who exactly is selling to you, and why now?

Red September, Green October?

Every ASX sector finished the past month in the red. Lachlann Tierney explains why September lived up to its reputation, and the three sectors he’s watching for small-cap opportunities.

The Crash Playbook for Small-Caps

The RBA’s rate rise stung, but the market shrugged it off. But a crash is inevitable (as it always is). Lachlann Tierney lays out what he’s looking for to weather the storm.

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Market Analysis

Part II – Navigating the Tricks of Uranium Investing

Uranium bears are back out of their holes. Is this the time to go hunting?

Euro Exodus Accelerates

Murray and Charlie discuss whether the capitulation in resources is creating opportunities worth watching, and why keeping your nerve through the carnage could prove crucial.

Somewhere Over the Trading Range

A sideways market rewards investors who are willing to change their mind. What history’s greatest bear can teach you about a feverish market going nowhere.

Up 2,500%… Is This the Correction to Buy?

Bond yields continue to rise, and high-yield corporate bonds are coming under pressure. Meanwhile, US equities remain worryingly narrow, while Australian stocks have just suffered a sharp sell-off.

Global Bond Rout Puts the ASX on the Edge

Charlie and Murray examine the synchronised rise in global yields, the growing competition for capital between governments and the AI investment boom, and the key levels that could determine whether the ASX stabilises or suffers another sharp leg lower.

Macro

Beijing Puts Away the Bazooka

Expectations of a stimulus bazooka from China have again been pushed back. But their latest plan does point to a list of metals that should be in your portfolio.

Let Her Rip

Two years ago, Trump’s economic whisperer co-wrote a paper accusing party politics of running stimulus into an election. This week, Treasury reached for the exact tool he described. The same paper warns what’s next.

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump

The pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of a key meeting with Xi next week. What could this mean for our markets.

What Does China Know That We Don’t?