Fat Tail Daily &#8211; ASX Updates | Small caps | Commodities

Charlie explores a paper that reveals how ‘the great AI job replacement’ may actually be a future where you become irreplaceable in your workplace.

When the Smart Money Loses Its Shirt

The US dollar breakout is putting pressure on gold and bitcoin, while back home the banks are keeping the ASX 200 close to a record as small caps struggle. Lachy and I look at that split and finish with a stock that’s still going up.

Commodity Cycle: Has it Peaked?

We’ve covered the commodity cycle in depth over the years… But has it already culminated? That’s what we examine today as markets enter a turbulent patch.

Remember the past to understand the future

Greg Canavan

I know it doesn’t feel like it, but the ASX200 Total Return index nearly hit a new all-time high yesterday (see chart below).

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Commodities

Commodity Cycle: Has it Peaked?

We’ve covered the commodity cycle in depth over the years… But has it already culminated? That’s what we examine today as markets enter a turbulent patch.

David Jones: A Wake-Up Call for Australia’s Middle Class

Brian Chu

David Jones entering into voluntary administration signals the further decline of Australia’s economy, particularly the middle class. However, this doesn’t have to continue if Australians make this decision to turn their destiny around…

Why I’ve Sold Most of My Copper Stocks even as China Scrambles

I first got interested in copper back in late 2022 when prices were falling sharply. Unlike today’s market, finding value was relatively easy, so is there still an opportunity in copper?

Rare Earth Truce: The Promise that Wasn’t

One year after the Busan handshake, China still decides who gets rare earths, how fast, and how much. Washington calls it cheating. Beijing calls it licensing. Either way, the West is about to pay up. At the same time, rare earth stocks have rarely been this hated.

Revisiting Iron Ore: Is it Really Doomed?

FMG shares are down over 30% in 2026, or about 50% since their peak in January 2024. Revisiting one of the market’s former darlings.

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Technology

AI Isn’t Replacing You. It’s Promoting You

Charlie explores a paper that reveals how ‘the great AI job replacement’ may actually be a future where you become irreplaceable in your workplace.

Return of the Granger

The Nasdaq just had its worst day in 19 months as voters turned on data centres. The build-out will slow, and the indebted builders could fold. But history suggests the trend will survive.

High Water Mark

Come January, Democrats will control both houses of Congress. The change in law may be modest, but the shift in power appears to be a turning point for the Trump era and possibly for markets.

AI Speaks DNA Now

Some of the most exciting work in AI looks nothing like ChatGPT. Let’s peek into the future with new AI paradigms, including some that only speak DNA and design novel viruses and drugs.

Peek Behind the Curtain

Small caps have copped a beating this year, but money is flowing back into one beaten-down corner of the market. Here’s what ATLAS is observing, before the headlines catch up

Small Caps

ASX 200 chasing SP500…can small-caps be “defensive”?

The ASX200 is clawing back ground on Wall Street, and a 494-page bill in Washington could hand ASX miners a gift. Back home, your pay packet tells a grimmer story.

NVDA Down, ASX up? Spygate implications…

Jensen Huang’s affair with a suspected Chinese spy has Nvidia’s board investigating. Nearly 7% of the S&P 500 rides on the outcome. The ASX, oddly, could benefit.

The Return of Magic Wand Economics

Democrats want renewables but resist new US mines. That contradiction is good news for gold and two small ASX uranium companies crossing from developer to producer.

A Roadmap for ASX Small Caps Post-Budget, Pre-Election

Small-cap fund managers are nursing heavy losses, and Jim Chalmers’ tax changes are making it worse. Here’s why I’m lowering my sights and clipping winners earlier.

Carry It Like Makybe

The Melbourne Cup is a handicap, and right now Canberra is the handicapper. Rates and tax keep adding lead to investors’ saddlebags. So how do you carry the weight?

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Market Analysis

When the Smart Money Loses Its Shirt

Remember the past to understand the future

Greg Canavan

I know it doesn’t feel like it, but the ASX200 Total Return index nearly hit a new all-time high yesterday (see chart below).

Keep the Flak Jacket On

The Nasdaq fell more than 6% overnight, yet the ASX 200 is holding up as investors pile into banks and defensives. That rotation masks the damage in smaller stocks.

Good Earnings Bad Reactions

With the Nasdaq threatening a weekly downtrend, oil surging towards US$120, and money flooding into bonds, the risk of a deeper correction is rising.

Market Capitulation: Is Something Breaking?

Panic selling is sweeping through ASX small and mid-cap stocks as the AI trade unwinds and global financial stress intensifies.

Macro

Dead, Dying, Gone

Big money is wading back into bonds, betting today’s yields are an aberration. But 60/40 depends on a world COVID left behind.

Beijing Puts Away the Bazooka

Expectations of a stimulus bazooka from China have again been pushed back. But their latest plan does point to a list of metals that should be in your portfolio.

Let Her Rip

Two years ago, Trump’s economic whisperer co-wrote a paper accusing party politics of running stimulus into an election. This week, Treasury reached for the exact tool he described. The same paper warns what’s next.

Worst. Budget. Ever

Greg Canavan

Worst. Budget. Ever. I really don’t know where to start with this one. It is so bad for this country that it’s hard to fathom. So let me start with the positives…

The Walls are Closing in on Trump